Miami - Bleacher report - Analyse du tableau

Sony Ericsson Open: Preview and Analysis

by

Nima Naderi

Senior Analyst Written on March 22, 2010

The Tour boys will have to make a quick turnaround this week from the dry, desert air in Indian Wells to the hot, humid conditions of Key Biscayne.

The Sony Ericsson Open, another premier event on the ATP World Tour, will boast an impressive field featuring Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Rafael Nadal. 

Notable absentees from the event include 2008 champion Nikolay Davydenko and reigning US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro. 

Davydenko is out with a broken left wrist, while del Potro continues to struggle with a right wrist injury he sustained during the fall season. 

On to the actual participants, and more presumably the underdogs. I have this funny feeling that both John Isner and Sam Querrey will have good showings in Miami, and that the new age of American tennis will continue to shine forward. 

Fernando Gonzalez is back in action after doing relief work in his native Chile. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see "Gonzo" play with purpose and passion, while creating a tremendous story along the way. 

While Miami has always been one of my favorite spots, the beautiful scenery of the mountains overlooking the courts at Indian Wells will be greatly missed. Still, there is nothing like watching a night match in Miami (aside from the US Open), particularly because it remains warm there, unlike Indian Wells this year. 

With a 96 man draw to preview, and the favorites to predict, let's get right down to the draw analysis.


Nadal Quarter:

Picking up his game while at the same time falling to pieces against Ljubicic at Indian Wells provided a jolt of energy to Nadal's legion of fans, while reminding us all that his best tennis is yet to come. 

Providing a powerful display of forehand tennis during the early stages of his semifinal with Ljubicic, Nadal began to spray and hit his forehand short. Admitting in his post-match presser that he was too nervous to close out Ljubicic, Nadal's winless mark in Miami won't help his cause, either. 

Having a few worrisome characters in his section, Nadal could face David Nalbandian, Ivo Karlovic, or David Ferrer, all before reaching the quarterfinals. 

Watch out for Nalbandian in this section. I saw him play at Indian Wells last week; although his match toughness needs some work, his ball-striking, fitness, and movement were spot on. Let's also take into account that Nalbandian holds a 2-1 career head-to-head record over Nadal, defeating the Spaniard twice on hard courts.

The top half of this quarter holds another one of Nadal's recent foes, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Hitting it hard and often, Tsonga's game translates well against Nadal, and a quarterfinal clash would be a proverbial popcorn contest.

There is however this matter of John Isner being in this section. Staying in the frame of mind of trendy and in form, Isner is one of the best players in the world at the moment.

Displaying deceptively fast footwork for a man his size, Isner's heart and fitness have caught up with his serve. I'd say that the young American has a great shot an upsetting Nadal in this quarter.

However, do I really believe that anyone other than Nadal will realistically come through this section? No. But do Tsonga and Isner have a shot at knocking Nadal out of the event? Most certainly.

All in all, when the dust settles, and the heat and humidity have battered and betrayed the other combatants in this section, the road warrior from Mallorca should reign supreme.


Federer Quarter:

After sustaining a shocking defeat to Marcos Baghdatis at Indian Wells, Federer enters Miami fresher than he has been in previous years. Starting off with a bye, Federer will likely meet Carlos Moya or Albert Montanes in the early rounds. To be quite honest, it would take a world beater effort by either Spaniard to upend Federer in the second or third round. 

Moving on to fourth round action, Federer could face a slumping Gilles Simon (unlikely), or a powerful but unconfident Tomas Berdych. 

Berdych posted some good results at Indian Wells last week, but has had trouble figuring out the Federer riddle in recent years. 

Federer is slated to meet either Fernando Verdsaco, Baghdatis, or Marin Cilic in the final eight. Verdasco appears confused with his choice of rackets (changing back to Tecnifibre in Indian Wells), while Cilic will have to rebound from a disastrous second-round exit in California. 

Baghdatis showed a lot of heart last week in defeating Federer, but he's scheduled to meet Cilic in a the third round—a match that would favor the young Croat. 

I can't foresee Cilic tumbling out of the early rounds for the second straight tournament. I also can't foresee Federer losing before the final four. 

However, let's keep in mind here that Federer has won a mere two Masters 1000 titles in the past three seasons. Federer is playing pretty much his best tennis at the Slams, while playing the rest of his tennis at the Masters events.  He is prone to an early defeat, but not before the second Friday. 

Djokovic Quarter:

Tired, weary and complaining about the calender, Djokovic will enter the Sony Ericsson Open with a lot to prove. Showing visible fatigue at Indian Wells last week, the Serb simply didn't want to be on court.

Occupying a dangerous portion of the draw, Djokovic could lock horns with unseeded Richard Gasquet as early as the second round, while American veteran James Blake could be looming in the third round.

Djokovic is clearly one of the best players in the world, but when he's residing in his "tired mode," an early upset can take place. Sam Querrey or Gael Monfils are slated to face Djokovic in the quarterfinals—a match up that could spell the end for the No. 2 seed.

In particular, Querrey's eclectic forehand and booming serve could be in prime position to blaze through the Miami draw. With constant confidence under his wings, Querrey could progress to his best ever Masters showing. 

Djokovic, to me anyway, appears to still want some off time from the Tour in order to recharge after his Davis Cup efforts. There is really no better place to do that than Miami, considering the nightlife and endless beaches. 

Look for Djokovic to stick around Miami, just not at Crandon Park in Key Biscayne. 

The top half of this quarter remains a tight-knit section of last week's glory. Both Indian Wells champion Ivan Ljubicic and finalist Andy Roddick reside in this section—both will look to continue their recent good form. 

Don't be surprised if Ljubicic bows out early, considering the hangover affect that is about to take place. By contrast, Roddick will be as eager as ever, considering his failed attempt at capturing his fourth different hard court Masters title at Indian Wells. 

Possessing a relatively weak draw up until the quarterfinals, look for a Roddick-Querrey showdown in front of a packed house.

Attempting to improve on his No. 25 world ranking, the Samurai will look to cheer on Querrey as he makes his descent to the top 20. Winning two of his last three matches against Roddick, Querrey appears to be confident against his mentor and friend.

Murray Quarter:

The defending champion will have to be on guard earlier if he is to defend his Florida crown. Facing either Mardy Fish or Leonardo Mayer; Murray will be up against two formidable hard court players from the get go. 

Mayer has the firepower to trouble any foe on hard courts (his favorite surface), while Fish has grown up on the asphalt of North America. 

While looking to get through his first round, Murray could face either Stanislas Wawrinka or Mikhail Youzhny in the fourth round. Youznhy would be the tougher foe for the Scot, considering his recent string of good form. But if Youzhny's antics from Miami in 2008 return, watch out—literally. 

Although Murray appears to be the premier player in the quarter, one can not forget the pride of Fernando Gonzalez. Skipping the Indian Wells event in order to aid with relief work in his earthquake ravaged Chile, the world's No. 10 player could be a force throughout the event.

Gonzalez has historically played his best tennis when competing for his country, and what better way to help fuel the recovery of Chile than to progress deep in the tournament. 

Robin Sodelring also resides in this section, but the hard courts in Miami have never been to his liking—neither was Indian Wells, mind you.

In saying that, Murray's tough section may bring forth some adversity from Gonzalez or Sodelring, but in the end the crafty Scot should progress to the final four. 

Pronostic :

Semifinals: Federer vs. Murray; Nadal vs. Querrey

Finals: Murray vs. Nadal

Comments

[marie]

La retrospective vient de Vamos brigade!

[dominique]

merci à Luna pour cette magnifique rétrospective d'IW. J'ai confiance pour Miami.....

[luna]

BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells 2010
by MAC

Stuck in the gloom of a particularly long and cold British winter it does one's heart good to see Rafa cavorting in sunshine - even if that does mean staying up into
the wee small hours at times. We know Indian Wells is one of Rafa's favourite tournaments and it's fast becoming one of ours.

From his first appearance on the practise courts he's appeared to be enjoying himself while at the same time looking focused and intent.







Though sometimes the warm up routines can look a little alarming...




At his pre-tournament press conference he was asked how he was feeling. His reply was "I hope well, no? I feel well. No problems now, but with the last time I have few problems. So, no, when you
come back you are always a little bit scared, but I'm feeling okay. I practice hard in Mallorca, and I did here, too, the first -- the last three, four days. I think I am ready."

For some reason (it could be the lighting or possibly just Rafa's "colm" at this venue) the press conferences pictures from here are always special.




The action started with a second round match against Rainer Schuettler. It had been six weeks since we'd seen him on court so nerves were pretty stretched. Conditions were dire with things flying
around the court in the high winds. Taking that into consideration, it was excellent that it took just over an hour and a half for him to see off his opponent 6-4, 6-4. How lovely that our only
issue was his interesting sartorial choice. In an interview on Sky immediately after the match he said of his shorts that "they looked better in the pictures than the real".




"I started the match playing well," said Rafa. "Later, when I played in favor of the wind, it was very difficult for me with the backhand because I felt it if I only touch the ball, the ball was
out, went too much. But it was a good start with the conditions for me. I’m very happy." "I am playing enough well to try to have a good result here, and that's what I’m gonna try."

The next round saw him up against Mario Ancic. This was a lot easier and it only took him just over an hour to clock a 6-2, 6-2 victory.

In his post match press conference Rafa said what he needs now is a stretch of uninterrupted competition, when he can "play when I want to play, not when the body gives me the opportunity to play.
Right now, the only thing is keep enjoying, keep playing well and keep improving my tennis," he said.




In the last 16 he faced John Isner who at 6' 9" is one of the tallest players on the tour. He also has a monster serve and hadn't even faced break points in his first two matches, let alone had his
serve broken. Rafa managed a flawless first set with zero unforced errors and managed to get that elusive break. The second set went to Isner and a few fans might just have retreated behind their
sofas. In the third set Rafa broke in the 4th game and managed to hold on to win 7-5, 3-6, 6-3.

"Well, when you are playing well, it’s easy to be with calm than when you are not playing at your best, no?"
"But today was really difficult match, no? So I know I have to play my best tennis. I did really well, I think. I only played a really bad game in the third fourth game of the second set."
"But the rest of the match I’m very happy how I did, no? I think John is a big player, very difficult to play against him, and he has an unbelievable potential. So for me it is a very important and
very good victory."




So Rafa was into the quarter finals - a point where a lot of people thought he would bow out. Two of the top four seeds had already gone out so it wouldn't have been a surprise. Tomas Berdych has
proved difficult for Rafa in the past but on this occasion Rafa was just too good and took the match 6-4, 7-6(4).




"It was a very important victory for me. The conditions are always very nice here and it's amazing me for this feeling." "I played really well, especially the first set. The first eight, nine games
of the match was (played at an) unbelievable level. Later the wind came a little bit and it was more difficult to play. But anyway, we were still playing, keep playing at high level, and this is
very important." "Very good news for me to be in semi-finals."




With Rafa as the only one of the top four seeds in the semi finals we may just have got a bit over-confident. I know his 6-3 4-6 6-7(1) loss to Ivan Ljubicic came as a shock to me - particularly
after he'd played so well for the first set and a half.

How truly wonderful it was, therefore, to see him come out a couple of hours later to win the doubles title with Marc Lopez.

It's such a shame that most of the TV channels do not cover the doubles at all. We had to rely on a few scant pictures and reports from the Vamos Brigade on the spot to appreciate how much Rafa
really relishes the doubles.




For the record, this was their path to the trophy-
R32 - defeated Lukas Dlouhy and Leander Paes (Seeded 3) 6-4, 3-6, 10-6
R16 - defeated Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco 6-4, 7-6(4)
Quarter Final - defeated Michael Llodra and Andy Ram 6-2 6-4
Semi final - defeated Simon Aspelin and Paul Hanley 6-4 6-4
Final - defeated Daniel Nestor and Nenad Zimonjic (Seeded 1) 7-6(8) 6-3

Thanks to that we can at last finish a page with a trophy biting picture.